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Welcome to The Takeaway, where we break down trends in the Middle East that you shouldn’t be missing.
Highlights: Putin casts shadow over Pence visit to Turkey; Is teachers’ protest in Jordan a harbinger?; Pakistan’s premier tries out peacemaker role; Iran’s female soccer fans finally get to cheer; and more!
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1. Putin looms large over US visit to Turkey
For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan the visit Thursday of US Vice President Mike Pence is unlikely to generate warm feelings, accompanied as it is with sanctions and threats.
Erdogan would prefer to only deal with US President Donald Trump, whose relationship he has valued — at least until now.
The Pence visit, however, may already be undercut by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who Erdogan will see in Sochi on Oct. 22, and who is already in full swing with his own plan to enact a cease-fire and withdrawal more to Erdogan’s liking — with Russian troops as a guarantor.
Putin’s three-part plan for a Turkey-Syria deal: Last week, we explained how Putin will “pivot to be the man in the middle to broker a deal among Ankara, Damascus and the Kurds” following the withdrawal of US forces from northeast Syria.
The deal with the Kurds is now done, and Russia is already working the backchannels between Ankara and Damascus. There is lots of bad blood between Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, so this will be a much tougher negotiations. But both leaders are probably inclined to avoid a direct military clash, and to trust Putin, at least to a point, or enough to keep talking.
As Max Suchkov reports, Russia has three objectives:
- The incursion should not upset the progress of the Syrian Constitutional Committee — the UN-sponsored political track, in which Russia has played a key role;
- Syria’s “territorial integrity” should not be breached, meaning no permanent military presence in the country once Turkish “security needs” are met;
- A revised border agreement (see our backgrounder here) between Turkey and Syria — which would assure that no Kurdish armed groups that Turkey considers “terrorists” will operate in the “safe zone,” an arrangement Russia would guarantee.
Putin has already set the diplomatic table for Erdogan: Last week, we explained how Putin will “pivot to be the man in the middle to broker a deal among Ankara, Damascus and the Kurds” following the withdrawal of US forces from northeast Syria.
Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions: Unlike Putin, who has good ties with all key players, the Trump administration finds itself in an adversarial relationship with four of the key parties in Syria — Russia, Iran, Turkey and the Syrian government — all of whom are under US sanctions.
“Not our border”: Trump said that while Washington would continue to engage Turkey diplomatically, as a NATO ally, he was also content with Russian mediation, and that “if Turkey goes into Syria, that’s between Turkey and Syria; it’s not between Turkey and the United States, like a lot of stupid people … would like you to believe … it’s not our border.”
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Our take: It’s hard to envision Erdogan backing down now, given Trump’s remarks, and unless Pence has a surprise goodwill offer in his pocket and the United States is ready to reengage diplomatically and militarily. If Putin’s initiative gets traction, and Turkey agrees to a ceasefire in coming days or weeks, we could begin to see plans for a final assault on Idlib, and, over time, a parallel resettlement of refugees, not just in a “safe zone” but, eventually, in all of Syria. Declarations of shame and outrage by many in the United States over the administration’s ‘betrayal’ of the Syrian Kurds could, in the realpolitik sense, be obviated by a cease-fire and the Kurds’ decision to make peace with the Syrian government Putin has raised the stakes for the next phase of the conflict; the Pence meeting with Erdogan will reveal if and how the US will respond to his strategy.
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Read more: Check out “In Case you Missed It” below for highlights of Al-Monitor’s coverage of Russia-Syria-Turkey-Kurdish diplomacy.
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2. Labor unrest on the rise in Jordan?
While the recent anti-government protests in Iraq and Egypt got the headlines, don’t overlook what’s happening in Jordan.
Teachers’ strike ends with apology and raise: Jordanian Prime Minister Omar Razzaz apologized for the use of force against striking teachers, and offered hefty pay raises, to end a monthlong strike by 140,000 teachers, which kept 1.5 million students out of school.
More to come?: Osama Al Sharif reports from Jordan that given the difficult economic situation, “the teachers strike is only the tip of the iceberg and that the country should brace itself for economically driven unrest.”
Our take: As in Egypt and Iraq, high unemployment remains a daunting challenge for the Jordanian government. Although the International Monetary Fund praised Jordan’s progress toward macroeconomic stability and reform, unemployment remained high, at 18%, including 23.3% for women, and exceptionally high for youth, at 42.3%. A projected gross domestic product growth rate of 2.2% won’t be enough to lower those numbers meaningfully. Jordan lies at the heart of a volatile region, adjacent to instability in Iraq and Syria, and perennial frictions between Israel and the Palestinians. Jordan, with a population of 9.7 million, houses over 2.1 million Palestinians registered as refugees, and 650,000 displaced Syrians.
Read more: Check out Osama Al Sharif’s coverage of the Jordanian protests here, as well as our assessment of the demonstrations that have rocked Egypt. and Iraq.
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3. New field of play for Imran Khan: diplomacy
The effort to tamp down hostility among Iran, the United States, and Saudi Arabia has attracted an all-star cast of world leaders — Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi — to name just four.
This has been a high-cost, low-return diplomatic enterprise so far, but the stakes and payoff are potentially high.
And the latest to get into the game, at the request of Saudi Arabia and US President Donald Trump, is Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan.
“No motives for hostility”: Khan’s visit to Iran this week elicited some of the most conciliatory comments in some time from Iranian leaders about the prospects for dialogue between Tehran and Riyadh, including and especially about Yemen.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that if an agreement can be reached on Yemen, that would “resolve” tensions in Iranian-Saudi ties, adding, “We never wanted to have bad relations with our neighbors.”
Even Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Khan that ending the Yemen war would have a positive impact on regional relations, adding that Iran has “no motives for hostility against” its Gulf neighbors, “but they are under the control of the US, and they act based on the will of the US to oppose Iran.”
He also said ties with the United Arab Emirates are improving.
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Our take: Khan’s mediation seems to have traction, based upon the unusually conciliatory comments of Iranian officials during his visit. His next stop is Riyadh. Keep an eye on statements and subsequent calls and meetings.
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Read more: Read Laura Rozen’s coverage of the various US-Iran mediation efforts, and Maxim Suchkov and Marianna Belenkaya’s report on Putin’s meetings in Riyadh.
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Iranian women cheer at soccer game, finally
It was a double victory for Iran’s national soccer team. They defeated Cambodia 14-0, but the real achievement was that Iranian women were, finally, able to attend a men’s sporting event, this time the World Cup qualifying game in Tehran, for the first time in nearly 40 years.
“I just cannot believe how much we shouted and cheered,” Maryam, 27, told Al-Monitor as she walked out of Tehran's Azadi Stadium. “I even cried at some point; I was so moved.” Saedi Jafari was at the stadium in Iran, and has the report here.
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| What we're reading ... and why: |
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Revisiting the authorization for force in Syria
A good deal of the media coverage of Trump’s decision to withdraw US forces from northeastern Syria described it as a “betrayal” of our Syrian Kurdish partners, and a “surprise.” We therefore thought it worth a relook at the authorization for the use of force in Syria.
A congressional authorization provides the legal basis for sustained military engagement beyond the president’s authority to commit force under Article II of the constitution. The present congressional authorizations include SJ Res 27 (2001), in response to the 9/11 attacks against al-Qaeda and HJ Res 114 (2002), to address the “threat posed by Iraq.” There is also UN Security Council Resolution 2254 (2015) that calls on member states to “prevent and suppress terrorist acts” by terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, the Islamic State (IS), and affiliates. In addition, Trump, citing his authority as commander in chief, struck targets in Syria twice in response to chemical weapons use by Syrian forces, in 2017 and 2018.
Neither of the authorizations is a perfect match for the US counter-IS mission, and there have been periodic efforts by members of Congress for an update.
There is also no formal “alliance” or “treaty” with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), or authorization to use military force to challenge the Iranian presence in Syria, or to overthrow Assad.
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| If you are “surprised” by the SDF deal with the Syrian government, or by Putin’s efforts to broker a deal between Turkey and Syria, you must have missed:
Barzani: “I believe the Kurds of Syria should try to find a solution within the framework of a united Syria. They should be engaging in dialogue and negotiations with the regime. It's important for all of us to have a stable neighbor such as Syria, but it's especially important for Russia. They are very clear on this point. Their strategy is geared toward securing a stable Syria. They can be key players in negotiating a settlement between the Kurds and the regime.”
Kobane: “We need to make a deal with the regime, for sure. … It goes without saying that Russia has a critical role to play in resolving the Syrian crisis. Without Russia, no lasting solution can be reached. Russia can pressure the Syrian regime to solve the Kurdish problem. And our talks with Russia are continuing on this score.”
- Amberin Zaman’s interview with Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani (March 2019):
- Amberin Zaman’s interview with Mazlum Kobane, SDF commander in chief (March 2019):
- Week in Review, “Putin guides Erdogan along the Road to Damascus” (January 2019)
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